Analysis: Hillary's "he can't win" argument

Hillary Clinton truly believes Barack Obama can't win this November in an even fight against Republican John McCain. This, more than anything else, is fueling her desire to push on -- we've established this before.

Clinton's burning, personal belief that Obama would lose the White House was reinforced by a new, developing story: that when Bill Richardson called to tell her he was endorsing Obama, she "flatly" told Richardson that "he (Obama) cannot win, Bill. He cannot win."

This is a statement that we here at The National Scold actually find a fair amount of merit in. There's plenty of reasons why Obama is weak against McCain. But here's the million-dollar question: if Obama would have trouble against McCain, can Hillary win?

We believe the answer to this, unfortunately for Lady Macbeth, is a definitive "no siree Bob."

There was actually a point during this race at which it seemed either Obama or Clinton would have no trouble trouncing whomever the Republicans trotted forth to oppose the Democrats in the general election.

This would be before the primary process become a bitter war of attrition, where pledged and superdelegates are being fought for -- to employ a military metaphor -- street by street, house by house.

This was before Obama and Clinton tore each other down, before each was forced to fire advisers who went too far in attacking the other candidate.

The point at which a Democratic victory in November seemed inevitable, has long passed thanks to a bitter primary battle that's highlighted Pastorgate and Snipergate.

My point is simple: Obama has emerged from all this in much better shape than Clinton. He's making more money, spending it more wisely, and he's ahead by pretty much every measurable metric -- number of states won, number of pledged delegates and the popular vote. Since the March 4 primaries, which Clinton WON, Obama has gained 11 superdelegates while Clinton has gained zero.

It's been analyzed a thousand times and there's no denying it: Clinton can no longer hope to overtake Obama by virtue of having more popular votes or pledged delegates. She can only win through backroom wrangling, convincing, bribing or intimidating superdelegates to buck popular support of Obama in favor of her.

So, why would Clinton fare poorly against McCain in November?

· Republicans hate her. Let's not forget that Clinton began this campaign -- and indeed her political life after Bill Clinton's presidency -- with high negatives among Republicans. It's more than fair to say Clinton has absolutely zero cross-over appeal with Republican voters. In fact, the only Republicans voting for Hillary are those who embraced Rush Limbaugh's amusing ploy: vote for Hillary to keep the Democratic race going on, so Obama comes out weaker. In the general, she's likely to increase Republican turnout against her.

· She can't beat McCain on experience. This is pretty self-explanatory. John McCain's life story and experience just completely dominates Clinton's. There really is no comparison. So without the experience argument, Clinton will have to focus on the issues, as she's already trying with her 3 a.m. ad on the economy targeting McCain.

· She would face a fractured Democratic electorate. If you think the thousands upon thousands of young Obama supporters who registered as Democrats to vote for him will vote for Hillary, think again. They'll go back to playing videogames on their XBOX 360s. Meanwhile, blacks, a historically crucial Democratic voting bloc, will stay home. Clinton's support among blacks, which would've been rock solid if not for Obama's presence in the race (no pun intended), would evaporate. This all adds up to greatly diminish the excitement and increased voter turnout among Democratic voters that was once cheered by the party.

Obama's weak points against McCain are significant enough to warrant their own story. But I should mention here that many of them have been amplified by Hillary's hand during the course of this remarkably contentious Democratic primary. Not that she cares any.