Tuesday marks the two last major primaries of the year, because Indiana and North Carolina together are worth nearly 50% of all remaining delegates (in Oregon, West Virginia, etc.).
Obama was heavily favored to win North Carolina, but Clinton has narrowed his 20-point lead there to something like 6 or 7 points. Indiana, once a virtual tie, is now Clinton territory by about 5 or 6 points. These figures are based on averages of many independent polls posted on Real Clear Politics. But despite these rough and uncertain waters, The Scold's fearless political correspondents will put their best guesses on the table for all to see.
· Grant: CLINTON wins Indiana by 5 points, OBAMA wins North Carolina by 7 points.
· Gustavo: CLINTON wins Indiana by 3-4 points, OBAMA wins North Carolina by 8 points.
· Jeremy: CLINTON wins Indiana by 8 points, OBAMA wins North Carolina by 5 points.
· Horace: CLINTON wins Indiana by 7 points, OBAMA wins North Carolina by 7 points.
For details on why we picked these numbers, read on.
· Grant: It's demographics once again that's deciding this race. Indiana is pretty close to Pennsylvania, and the one thing Obama has going for him in the Hoosier state is this sort half-argument that some Indiania residents are familiar with him due to an overlapping TV media market between Illinois and western Indiana. Blue-collar working class voters were never Obama's strong point, and his image to them has worsened considerably thanks to Pastorgate, Bittergate (small-town, blue-collar folk "cling" to guns, God, and antipathy to foreigners, Obama said), and most recently, Pastorgate Deux -- when Jeremiah Wright embarked on a crusade to "clear" his good name. Meanwhile, North Carolina will go to Obama as no number of pissed off blue-collar voters will likely be sufficient to overcome Obama's massive edge in black voters. That's not to say Clinton hasn't closed the gap thanks largely to Wright's recent publicity tour.
· Gustavo: Obama was supposed to take North Carolina by double digits and squeak out a win in Indiana, but his poll numbers across the board have been depressed. As Jeremiah Wright's vengeful media blitz is the biggest spectacle for last-minute swing voters to gawk at, it makes sense that Obama is hurting at this point in the game. Now the polls show he's solidly behind Clinton in the Hoosier state while she's closed the gap in North Carolina. Not a blowout for Obama there, but enough to staunch the bleeding. Meanwhile, Clinton will ride her probable Indiana win for all its worth, and will likely push on with an eye towards West Virginia and Kentucky, two other states with lots of blue collars.
· Jeremy: Indiana is superficially like Pennsylvania and Ohio giving Clinton the advantage. Obama's shot here was ruined by Wright. Expect more "Obama can't connect with rural, blue collar whites" stories. In North Carolina, the demographics mean that Obama will win, but also that he should win. The expectations game means he will get little credit for his victory. However, there is something big to win here: John Edwards' endorsement. That could make the story into a solid Obama win, rather than another grueling draw win the zombie candidate.
· Horace: My, how the tables have turned. Hillary, with a doggedness that's won her admirers from the right, has essentially managed to pin Obama against the ropes. She's gotten a huge amount of help from Jeremiah Wright, a raving maniac whom Obama is probably wishing had been in front of an 18-wheeler at the wrong time with two broken legs. Now Obama faces uncertainty in North Carolina (he'll probably take it thanks to the black vote, as most blacks are probably still staring in Wright's direction with shock or anger) and almost certain defeat in Indiana. My God, it's deliciously entertaining to see how Obama the hopemonger and uniter has become an arugula-buying Harvard elitist with what Newsweek calls a massive "Bubba gap."
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
Primary Predictions: Indiana, North Carolina
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2 comments:
hmm I'm surprised that no one has Obama pulling out a a double digit victory in NC. The only reason I see him as winning maybe by 11 or 12 is this: early voting was huge in NC and in the early voting tallies 40% was african-american. If say on election day the African American turnout is at 38% and Obama gets lets say 87% of that, he would only need 35% of white voters to earn a double digit victory. Seems pretty doable.
Indiana on the other hand I have Clinton winning by 7 or 8 points.
I'm surprised that political junkies like yourselves don't also include delegate counts in your predictions (a la al giordano or poblano from 538) since delegates are really what matter in the grand scheme. I think my predictions on that are NC O:63 C:52 and IN O:34 C:38. so overall a +7 pick up for Obama.
You're probably right. We've commented in other stories that the delegate vote is unlikely to shift significantly given the Democrat's proportional primary system, but we might as well toss out delegate numbers while we're at it.
In fact, you should probably come write for us, if you're so inclined. Send me an email if you are. It's simple -- write when you can, about what you want.
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