It's been a brutal spring for Barack Obama, but he's regained his footing with a 14-point win in North Carolina and a near-miss of barely 2 points in Indiana. The one thing that stands out the most to this reporter is that Obama has taken a huge amount of punishment, and he hasn't collapsed.
Sure, he's weak with blue-collar voters, and they prefer Clinton over him, but given how sensitive this game is, it's entirely possible for Obama to win them over by arguing John McCain is the greater of two evils. Even worse for Clinton, the media is now all over a story that she loaned her campaign another $6.4 million of her personal wealth. Ouch.
Anyway, the unexpected size of Obama's North Carolina victory erases any gains Clinton made in Pennsylvania. The math is showing Clinton's chances to be impossible, and Obama's aura of inevitability is hanging over her head once again like a guillotine. Obama would have to be client number 10, right behind Eliot Spitzer, to lose the nomination now.
If you want a detailed breakdown on the math, check out MSNBC's First Read blog. The summary is this: Obama has regained his lead in the popular vote and even if Clinton managed to get Florida and Michigan to count, she would still be behind to the tune of about 91,000 votes. That's because Obama's ahead by a whopping 700,000 votes.
And that's not even taking into account the pledged delegate lead Obama has. Again, using First Read's numbers, the addition of Florida and Michigan's delegates (giving Clinton the percentage of Florida and Michigan she won, while Obama gets only the uncommitted delegates) will still result in an Obama lead of about 110 pledged delegates. This is a crucial figure, and one that hasn't changed significantly for Clinton all spring, despite the fact that she's only had to deal with one gaffe (Snipergate) while Obama's had a ton of bad press.
It's a situation that led Tim Russert to conclude that Obama is indeed the Democratic nominee. There's just not much point in pretending anymore. The only question that remains to be answered is how Clinton will choose to go out.
Reports from the campaign trail early this morning indicate Clinton is already off to campaign in West Virginia, with a badly-needed fundraising event set for Washington, D.C. later today. Remember, according to this morning's breaking story, she's more than doubled the amount of money she has personally invested into her campaign.
Stay tuned for a more detailed analysis story of Hillary Clinton's curtain call.
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
Reaction: Obama regains aura of inevitability
Filed by
Grant Huang, editor
at
10:20 AM
Sections: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Reaction
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