Analysis: Mama Drama

Will Barack Obama have difficulty earning the support of Hillary Clinton voters? There are certainly a lot of disappointed, even angry women out there. While Clinton had broader appeal than simply her own gender, her most dedicated backers were white women. Especially those who were middle class, middle-aged and mothers- women just like her. John McCain seems to think Obama will have trouble with this bloc; he has begun a charm offensive by praising Clinton, her effort, and women in general. McCain hopes to steal a few of these votes, but mostly, he hopes he can make a large number of Democrats stay home this November.

No doubt, some will stay home or defect. Take a look at the rabidly pro-Hillary site HillaryIs44.com, which has called Obama "a lead gang-banger in the misogyny parade". The site even asks readers to take this pledge: "I will not vote for Obama nor any person who endorsed Obama before June 3... in NOvember. Obama is NOt qualified to be president. I reject... the Obama race-baiting, gay-bashing, woman-hating campaign". Surely, most Clinton voters are not unhinged, but many think she lost because of sexism. That is not why she lost, but it hardly matters if a substantial number of Democrats believe it to be so.

Obama can shore up his support with women with one important issue however. That issue, of course, is abortion.

How many feminists, the old joke goes, does it take to change a light bulb? You probably know the answer: That's not funny. Clinton's most hardcore supporters take perceived sexism very seriously. They also take their issues very seriously, and abortion is one of feminism's defining issues.

One area where McCain is, and always has been, in lockstep with the right is abortion. Unlike Mitt Romney this year, or George H.W. Bush in 1980, McCain was against abortion rights long before he was seeking to win the GOP nomination. Think about it: McCain is diametrically opposed to the bulk of Clinton's base on possibly the issue most important to them. Despite the threats of many of the HillaryIs44 posters, most of Clinton's people are not going to back John McCain in the fall.

Obama can even use the abortion issue to motivate otherwise disaffected Clinton supporters to the polls. He can get them to the voting booth by letting them know how at risk abortion rights will be with another Republican president. John Paul Stevens is 88, Ruth Bader Ginsburg is 75, Stephen Breyer is 69 and David Souter is 68. These are the Supreme Court's liberal judges, the ones who would uphold Roe v. Wade and possibly two or more of them will be replaced in the next 4 years. Either McCain or Obama will nominate those new justices.

This line of attack has few drawbacks. Independents and moderates are broadly, if conditionally, pro-choice. Indeed, around 60% of all Americans support the abortion status quo.

If Obama makes women understand the stakes- McCain will appoint justices who will overturn that ruling given the chance- Hillary's women will quickly sour on the so-called "maverick".

This, and being respectful towards Clinton, is about all he can do. While the pundits will argue it to death, there is no use trying to convince Clinton supporters she did not lose because of sexism. This is of course true, but the truth of an argument is not always connected to its acceptance.

This is not to say that there has not been sexism; there certainly has been. The sexism, however, probably was not any worse than the Clintons' race baiting. More importantly, Hillary Clinton's gender was more helpful than harmful. It gave her an instant base, it allowed "First Lady" to, amazingly, actually count as experience, and it gave her an excuse for almost any failure.

Chuck Todd, NBC's political director said on Sunday's Meet the Press that Clinton lost both the outside and inside game. The outside game was the actual votes and fundraising. To the suprise of most pundits, however, Clinton also lost the inside game. She lost on process, she lost in campaign planning and direction, and she lost with the superdelegates. Frankly, institutional support is all Hillary Clinton really brought to the table, but it did not materialize. This is why she lost.

Geraldine Ferraro was crucified for saying that Obama was only where he was because of his race. She was rightfully taken to task for this shameful race-baiting, but there was also an element of truth. Obama's race was part of his story, part of his generational appeal, and made him viable in the South. The flipside of that argument, however, is the equally true observation that Clinton only got to this point because of her sex. This is why the complaints of people like HillaryIs44 posters are so eye-roll inducing.

Nonetheless, this argument is a losing proposition on the stump. Change the subject by talking about abortion, fair pay and Hillary's pet subject, health care. They will come around.

And, if that does not work, remind them how badly McCain treated his first wife.